LAP–
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Every remaining Grand Prix simulated 20,000 times from each driver's form (finishing orders, recent races weighted more) and reliability. The race model behind it is tested on races it never saw (see results/championship_eval.json).
Each circuit: how much a car lost per lap while running within 1 s of the car ahead (after removing tyres, fuel and driver pace with the race model; 90 % cluster-bootstrap interval) against the number of on-track passes. Not published anywhere else: both are derived from raw timing.
Seconds per lap behind the fastest team on equal tyres and fuel (the model's pace term), race by race. Darker = closer to the front; last column is the season median.
Seconds lost per lap of tyre age, from the race-pace model (fuel and track evolution removed). Bars show 90 % bootstrap intervals.
Measured from in-lap + out-lap versus two modelled racing laps, green-flag stops only (median).