Rotaist Istanbul last-mile, traffic-aware

Real İBB traffic · 250 orders/day · 22 days back-tested

Same orders. Same vans.
Fewer driver hours.

Most route planners assume the city moves at one speed all day. Rotaist forecasts tomorrow's Istanbul traffic hour by hour and plans around the rush — then we drive every plan on the traffic that really happened.

Watch a real day ↓
17:00
street speed jammed → free flow delivered on time delivered late still to deliver click a stop for its promised vs. real arrival · drag the timeline to scrub

Back-test

Plan the evening before. Drive on real traffic.

Better is up and to the left

Every dot is one planner on one real January day: driver hours spent vs. minutes delivered late. Rotaist (blue) sits next to the oracle; ignoring traffic (dark grey) falls off the chart.

How good is the promise?

Real arrival minus the ETA the customer was told. A static free-flow plan is systematically late.

Driver hours by fleet size

At equal or better punctuality, Rotaist's savings grow as the fleet gets more room to plan.

Four months of Istanbul traffic

Median speed across Kadıköy, Üsküdar and Ataşehir as % of free flow, every hour of every day. The model trains on the left, is tested on January.

jammed free flowno datahover for details · evening rush at 17–19 h, quiet holidays (29 Oct, 1 Jan)

Tomorrow's traffic, predicted tonight

Average street speed on a held-out day: reality vs. forecasts.

Day by day

On-time rate on each held-out weekday (5 vans). One bad forecast day is visible — and real.

Under the hood

How it works

🚦

Real traffic

İBB average speed for every ~1 km cell, every hour — 398 cells × 117 days.

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Street network

33,604 OpenStreetMap segments inherit their cell's congestion, hour by hour.

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Day-ahead forecast

Gradient boosting predicts tomorrow's congestion from data up to tonight.

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Time-dependent ALNS

Our optimiser knows 3 km takes twice as long at 18:00 and sequences around it.

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Honest back-test

Every plan is driven on the traffic that actually happened that day.

Orders are synthetic (drawn from real OSM residential floor area); traffic and streets are real. Data: İBB Açık Veri Portalı (İBB Open Data License) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · tiles OpenFreeMap · code MIT.